Saturday, December 15, 2007
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Europe's Porous Borders?
EU migration policy seem to be in a bit of a muddle right now. While some member states are positively "raining immigrants" like never before (Spain, the UK, Ireland, Greece) others are losing population at a more or less similar rate (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania) while yet others have more or less moderate flows (Italy, Portugal, Sweden, the Czech Republic) and others (France, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Estonia) are waking up to the fact that they might be missing out on something.
Over in Brussels EU justice and security commissioner Franco Frattini is aware that something is amiss, but the real issue is how to put together a policy which is acceptable to the differing needs and perspectives of 27 different member states (including, of course, Malta). When you have diversity and division on your hands, there is no simpler solution I suppose, then to look for the problem which unites everyone:
People smugglers are turning the European Union’s south-east frontiers into a hotspot for illegal migration, the EU’s security chief has warned. The Mediterranean is the most visible route for unlawful entry to the union, with thousands of Africans undertaking risky sea crossings each year in an attempt to reach southern Europe. But Mr Frattini warned that undocumented entry through the east was a further worry. “The illegal migrants coming from the east are very often victims of sexual exploitation, trafficking and forced labour,” he told the Financial Times. His comments highlight the challenge confronting the EU over migration, with a fractious debate about whether it can manage entry while also filling labour market gaps. About 500,000 undocumented migrants are thought to arrive each year.
Well, nearly everyone, there is, of course, as I have said, also Malta to think about:
The EU’s fledgling border control agency, Frontex, is running operations in southern coastal waters this summer as part of efforts to control migration from Africa. Mr Frattini said the patrols were having an effect, despite some member states failing to meet commitments to provide equipment. The operations were likely to become permanent there, he added. Since Frontex missions began in the Mediterranean in June, flows of illegal migrants had dropped by 40 per cent. People smugglers were worried about the agency’s patrols, he said. But critics question whether the operations simply push would-be entrants to try other routes. They also say that on the patrol near Malta, anyone rescued by Frontex would be taken to Europe for humanitarian reasons in any case.
And of course, what the FT fails to mention is that the part of Europe which Frontex would most likely have to take them would be Spain, since some other people seem to be so reluctant to accept their humanitarian responsibilities.
But as I say, this issue is reasonably easy to unite people on. All good people and true want to reduce the volume of migrant trafficing, and reduce to a minimum the human tragedy which is currently taking place almost daily off Europe's southernmost shores.
Yes, but how, that is the problem.
Two measures have been proposed. Firstly the Portuguese Presidency is proposing to hold an Africa-EU summit. This would be an initiative somewhat similar the the already existing EuroMed process (Although just one more time Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have his own idea about how to move this latter one forward).
Under the German presidency, efforts from 2006 were continued to strengthen economic development aid to African nations. By increasing the standard of living in Africa, most migrants will find incentive to remain. Many have stated that they do not particularly wish to come to Europe, but they see few other options.
Additionally, agreements have been made, with more on the way, between the European Union, individual EU nations and several African countries on a number of points. Portuguese Prime Minister, José Sócrates, who took over the rotating EU council presidency from Germany, inherits a number of these agreements and now must make further progress.
Fundamentally, in exchange for economic development aid, schools, security training, increased attention toward legal migration routes and job centers, African nations must agree to accept back their nationals who are deported from Europe, increase their own border security to reduce illegal travel, and take on the crime and corruption that is aiding the illegal migration trade.
A very significant step was made toward these goals last month by a delegation of Spanish business executives, with the cooperation and blessing of the Spanish government. They traveled to Senegal in a recruitment drive to establish training centers and to provide job contracts and visas for African nationals to work in Spain.
Over in Brussels EU justice and security commissioner Franco Frattini is aware that something is amiss, but the real issue is how to put together a policy which is acceptable to the differing needs and perspectives of 27 different member states (including, of course, Malta). When you have diversity and division on your hands, there is no simpler solution I suppose, then to look for the problem which unites everyone:
People smugglers are turning the European Union’s south-east frontiers into a hotspot for illegal migration, the EU’s security chief has warned. The Mediterranean is the most visible route for unlawful entry to the union, with thousands of Africans undertaking risky sea crossings each year in an attempt to reach southern Europe. But Mr Frattini warned that undocumented entry through the east was a further worry. “The illegal migrants coming from the east are very often victims of sexual exploitation, trafficking and forced labour,” he told the Financial Times. His comments highlight the challenge confronting the EU over migration, with a fractious debate about whether it can manage entry while also filling labour market gaps. About 500,000 undocumented migrants are thought to arrive each year.
Well, nearly everyone, there is, of course, as I have said, also Malta to think about:
The EU’s fledgling border control agency, Frontex, is running operations in southern coastal waters this summer as part of efforts to control migration from Africa. Mr Frattini said the patrols were having an effect, despite some member states failing to meet commitments to provide equipment. The operations were likely to become permanent there, he added. Since Frontex missions began in the Mediterranean in June, flows of illegal migrants had dropped by 40 per cent. People smugglers were worried about the agency’s patrols, he said. But critics question whether the operations simply push would-be entrants to try other routes. They also say that on the patrol near Malta, anyone rescued by Frontex would be taken to Europe for humanitarian reasons in any case.
And of course, what the FT fails to mention is that the part of Europe which Frontex would most likely have to take them would be Spain, since some other people seem to be so reluctant to accept their humanitarian responsibilities.
But as I say, this issue is reasonably easy to unite people on. All good people and true want to reduce the volume of migrant trafficing, and reduce to a minimum the human tragedy which is currently taking place almost daily off Europe's southernmost shores.
Yes, but how, that is the problem.
Two measures have been proposed. Firstly the Portuguese Presidency is proposing to hold an Africa-EU summit. This would be an initiative somewhat similar the the already existing EuroMed process (Although just one more time Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have his own idea about how to move this latter one forward).
Under the German presidency, efforts from 2006 were continued to strengthen economic development aid to African nations. By increasing the standard of living in Africa, most migrants will find incentive to remain. Many have stated that they do not particularly wish to come to Europe, but they see few other options.
Additionally, agreements have been made, with more on the way, between the European Union, individual EU nations and several African countries on a number of points. Portuguese Prime Minister, José Sócrates, who took over the rotating EU council presidency from Germany, inherits a number of these agreements and now must make further progress.
Fundamentally, in exchange for economic development aid, schools, security training, increased attention toward legal migration routes and job centers, African nations must agree to accept back their nationals who are deported from Europe, increase their own border security to reduce illegal travel, and take on the crime and corruption that is aiding the illegal migration trade.
A very significant step was made toward these goals last month by a delegation of Spanish business executives, with the cooperation and blessing of the Spanish government. They traveled to Senegal in a recruitment drive to establish training centers and to provide job contracts and visas for African nationals to work in Spain.
Babies Booming in Dusseldorf?
A couple of weeks back Bertrand Benoit of the Financial Times Frankfurt Office had an article on what appeared to be a resurgence in natality in Germany:
A pregnant woman is a rare sight on German city streets. But sit at a café terrace on Düsseldorf’s Königsallee, the city’s main shopping artery, and you will probably spot several swollen bellies. Statisticians in this prosperous city have been scratching their heads lately over figures that suggest Germans, among the most barren of western Europeans, are rediscovering the joys of procreation. In the first quarter of 2007, nearly 15 per cent more babies were born in Düsseldorf than in the same period last year. The Kaiserwerther Diakonie, one of the city’s three large hospitals, reported a rise of more than 16 per cent in births in the first half of the year. This and increases seen in other large cities from affluent Munich to down-at-heel Berlin have triggered ecstatic reports, with newspaper Die Welt predicting “a new baby boom”.
I see. Well I'm not sure what exactly has been happening in Dusseldorf, but I think it is pretty clear that Die Welt (and by implication Bertrand Benoit) have been rather too quick of the mark here. So much so that the German Federal Statistics office had to explicity deny the press account when it recently published its Q1 2007 birth data:
WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office on the basis of provisional results, the number of live births in the first quarter of 2007 (149,300 children) rose just slightly (+0.4%) on the same quarter of 2006 (148,700). The number of boys born was 76,700, that of girls 72,600. The high rates of increase as reported by some media were hence not achieved.
So the press pumped it up, and the statistical office then had to pump it down. In fairmess of course Benoit only talks about Dusseldorf (and there may of course have been, for reasons yet to be determined, a lot of extra births in Dusseldorf early this year. And, indeed, Benoit was not alone here, nor was Die Welt, this news even made it out to Australia.
What is strange about all this is how our thinking is so asymmetrical on the topic, we cast all kind and manner of doubt on assertions from demographers when they suggest that something new, and more or less unprecedented is happening (and if you don't believe this, just take a look at the data I put together earlier in the week on what has been going on in Ukraine in the last decade or so), but then, at the first sight of a little piece of what seems to be good news (even if in fact the news in question is based on misinformation) we quickly let ourselves come to the "there, I told you so" conclusion.
Even with or without an 0.4% increase in live births at the start of this year, what stands out about the German birth numbers is how they are enormously down on the volume of children being born even as recently as the mid 1990s.
Here's the Federal Statistics Office release for 2006 births:
In 2006, 673,000 live births were registered, that was 13,000 or 1.9% less than in 2005. The number of births has been declining since 1991, with the exception of 1996 and 1997. The number of deaths had fallen continuously from 1994 to 2001, before it increased in 2002, 2003 and 2005. In 2006, there were 822,000 deaths, which was a decrease by 8,000 or 1% on the previous year. This means that in 2006, there was an excess of deaths over births of about 149,000. In the previous year, the deficit of births was by about 5,000 persons smaller. On 31 December 2006, Germany had about 82,315,000 inhabitants. That was 123,000 or 0.1% less than at the end of 2005 (82,438,000)
The thing is, none of this is exactly a new phenomenon, as the graph for the Old East and West German fertility shown below makes clear:
But this doesn't seem to hold our Bertrand back:
"Demography experts warn that it could take months, even years, to determine whether the current uptick in childbirth is a statistical anomaly or if something more fundamental is happening. Yet this has not prevented them from speculating about the factors behind the surge."
In truth it would not seem to be the demographers who need to be prevented about speculating - since by and large they are pretty accustomed to this kind of phenomenon, and are normally by nature cautious people - but rather Benoit himself.
To give you some idea in 1990 - and remember that Germany was already on aggregate below replacement fertility already at that point, 904,930 children were born, so the 630,000 odd last year is about a 30% drop in roughly a decade and a half. At this rate by 2020 Germany would be having about 450,000 childen annually, that would be a drop of 50% in 30 years, or one current generation. Now this isn't bad if you think that German is overpopulated, people need more space, Germans consume too much energy etc. But you do need to start to think about where is the money is going to come from to keep all those older people in pensions. Where it won't be coming from is from the honest sweat of Ukranian migrants, since quite simply there won't be sufficient Ukranians left to come. What is it they say already in Serbia, will the last one out turn the lights off :).
And then I have to ask myself, are the only two possible responses to all of this either superficial haymaking, or dreadful gloom and doom. Well Bertrand Benoit, at least, seems to think so:
"Germany’s demographics have spawned their own branch of non-fiction literature specialising in doomsday predictions about the collapse of the country’s welfare state and medical system. Opinion polls show few young people think they can survive in old age on the basic state pension."
Now all of this is a pity, since in the second part of the article Benoit does take the trouble to give us a run around of a lot of the most interesting and influential ideas which are knocking around in the area of low fertility and its attendant problems. Low fertility trap theorist Wolfgang Lutz gets a look in:
“German-speaking countries are unique in having a full generation that has come of age seeing childbearing as abnormal,” says Wolfgang Lutz, the director of the Vienna Institute of Demography. “This has affected the psychology, with a third of young men now saying they never want to have children.”
As does US cohort driven fertility theorist Richard Easterlin:
One popular explanation lies in the country’s powerful economic recovery. The link between income expectation and fertility has been generally accepted since the 1980s, when Richard Easterlin, an economist at the University of Southern California, first highlighted the correlation.
Now much as Easterlin cohort work is of some interest in explaining what you could call the "proximate causes" of fertility outcomes (like bad economic conditions in the 1930s producing the first signs of below replacement fertility while improved prospects post-WWII saw the arrival of the baby booms) it is hard pressed to explain the long term structural drivers of the enduring low fertility we are now seeing increasingly spreading across the globe.
We also get a mention of Elterngelt, which may of course have been a factor in some timing decisions in the urban areas:
"Then there is Elterngeld, a new parental allowance. Introduced nationwide in January and modelled on Scandinavian policies, the benefit entitles every new parent to a state allowance worth 67 per cent of their salary if they stop working for a year after having a child."
So my beef here, yet one more time, is not that there aren't some sensible and interesting points in the article, it is that, just as in the case of the Economist, one or two unjustifiable statements are thrown out which then condition the context of everything else which follows. Yet when you look through the piece carefully, it is often hard to see what exactly is being said, or what conclusions we are actually left to draw. Like:
“Ask young mothers now and most will tell you they want to work part-time,” he says. “The ideology has gone now and we have a consensus that mothers – and fathers – should be given the choice as to how best to raise their children.
Doubtless again there is some truth in this, although it would be nice to see some evidence for the assertion. However, whether part time (or temporary Zeitarbeit) is what they want, it is increasingly what they are likely to find. As we will see in my next installment of the great Bertrand Benoit searching for a solid idea wild goose chase.
A pregnant woman is a rare sight on German city streets. But sit at a café terrace on Düsseldorf’s Königsallee, the city’s main shopping artery, and you will probably spot several swollen bellies. Statisticians in this prosperous city have been scratching their heads lately over figures that suggest Germans, among the most barren of western Europeans, are rediscovering the joys of procreation. In the first quarter of 2007, nearly 15 per cent more babies were born in Düsseldorf than in the same period last year. The Kaiserwerther Diakonie, one of the city’s three large hospitals, reported a rise of more than 16 per cent in births in the first half of the year. This and increases seen in other large cities from affluent Munich to down-at-heel Berlin have triggered ecstatic reports, with newspaper Die Welt predicting “a new baby boom”.
I see. Well I'm not sure what exactly has been happening in Dusseldorf, but I think it is pretty clear that Die Welt (and by implication Bertrand Benoit) have been rather too quick of the mark here. So much so that the German Federal Statistics office had to explicity deny the press account when it recently published its Q1 2007 birth data:
WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office on the basis of provisional results, the number of live births in the first quarter of 2007 (149,300 children) rose just slightly (+0.4%) on the same quarter of 2006 (148,700). The number of boys born was 76,700, that of girls 72,600. The high rates of increase as reported by some media were hence not achieved.
So the press pumped it up, and the statistical office then had to pump it down. In fairmess of course Benoit only talks about Dusseldorf (and there may of course have been, for reasons yet to be determined, a lot of extra births in Dusseldorf early this year. And, indeed, Benoit was not alone here, nor was Die Welt, this news even made it out to Australia.
What is strange about all this is how our thinking is so asymmetrical on the topic, we cast all kind and manner of doubt on assertions from demographers when they suggest that something new, and more or less unprecedented is happening (and if you don't believe this, just take a look at the data I put together earlier in the week on what has been going on in Ukraine in the last decade or so), but then, at the first sight of a little piece of what seems to be good news (even if in fact the news in question is based on misinformation) we quickly let ourselves come to the "there, I told you so" conclusion.
Even with or without an 0.4% increase in live births at the start of this year, what stands out about the German birth numbers is how they are enormously down on the volume of children being born even as recently as the mid 1990s.
Here's the Federal Statistics Office release for 2006 births:
In 2006, 673,000 live births were registered, that was 13,000 or 1.9% less than in 2005. The number of births has been declining since 1991, with the exception of 1996 and 1997. The number of deaths had fallen continuously from 1994 to 2001, before it increased in 2002, 2003 and 2005. In 2006, there were 822,000 deaths, which was a decrease by 8,000 or 1% on the previous year. This means that in 2006, there was an excess of deaths over births of about 149,000. In the previous year, the deficit of births was by about 5,000 persons smaller. On 31 December 2006, Germany had about 82,315,000 inhabitants. That was 123,000 or 0.1% less than at the end of 2005 (82,438,000)
The thing is, none of this is exactly a new phenomenon, as the graph for the Old East and West German fertility shown below makes clear:
But this doesn't seem to hold our Bertrand back:
"Demography experts warn that it could take months, even years, to determine whether the current uptick in childbirth is a statistical anomaly or if something more fundamental is happening. Yet this has not prevented them from speculating about the factors behind the surge."
In truth it would not seem to be the demographers who need to be prevented about speculating - since by and large they are pretty accustomed to this kind of phenomenon, and are normally by nature cautious people - but rather Benoit himself.
To give you some idea in 1990 - and remember that Germany was already on aggregate below replacement fertility already at that point, 904,930 children were born, so the 630,000 odd last year is about a 30% drop in roughly a decade and a half. At this rate by 2020 Germany would be having about 450,000 childen annually, that would be a drop of 50% in 30 years, or one current generation. Now this isn't bad if you think that German is overpopulated, people need more space, Germans consume too much energy etc. But you do need to start to think about where is the money is going to come from to keep all those older people in pensions. Where it won't be coming from is from the honest sweat of Ukranian migrants, since quite simply there won't be sufficient Ukranians left to come. What is it they say already in Serbia, will the last one out turn the lights off :).
And then I have to ask myself, are the only two possible responses to all of this either superficial haymaking, or dreadful gloom and doom. Well Bertrand Benoit, at least, seems to think so:
"Germany’s demographics have spawned their own branch of non-fiction literature specialising in doomsday predictions about the collapse of the country’s welfare state and medical system. Opinion polls show few young people think they can survive in old age on the basic state pension."
Now all of this is a pity, since in the second part of the article Benoit does take the trouble to give us a run around of a lot of the most interesting and influential ideas which are knocking around in the area of low fertility and its attendant problems. Low fertility trap theorist Wolfgang Lutz gets a look in:
“German-speaking countries are unique in having a full generation that has come of age seeing childbearing as abnormal,” says Wolfgang Lutz, the director of the Vienna Institute of Demography. “This has affected the psychology, with a third of young men now saying they never want to have children.”
As does US cohort driven fertility theorist Richard Easterlin:
One popular explanation lies in the country’s powerful economic recovery. The link between income expectation and fertility has been generally accepted since the 1980s, when Richard Easterlin, an economist at the University of Southern California, first highlighted the correlation.
Now much as Easterlin cohort work is of some interest in explaining what you could call the "proximate causes" of fertility outcomes (like bad economic conditions in the 1930s producing the first signs of below replacement fertility while improved prospects post-WWII saw the arrival of the baby booms) it is hard pressed to explain the long term structural drivers of the enduring low fertility we are now seeing increasingly spreading across the globe.
We also get a mention of Elterngelt, which may of course have been a factor in some timing decisions in the urban areas:
"Then there is Elterngeld, a new parental allowance. Introduced nationwide in January and modelled on Scandinavian policies, the benefit entitles every new parent to a state allowance worth 67 per cent of their salary if they stop working for a year after having a child."
So my beef here, yet one more time, is not that there aren't some sensible and interesting points in the article, it is that, just as in the case of the Economist, one or two unjustifiable statements are thrown out which then condition the context of everything else which follows. Yet when you look through the piece carefully, it is often hard to see what exactly is being said, or what conclusions we are actually left to draw. Like:
“Ask young mothers now and most will tell you they want to work part-time,” he says. “The ideology has gone now and we have a consensus that mothers – and fathers – should be given the choice as to how best to raise their children.
Doubtless again there is some truth in this, although it would be nice to see some evidence for the assertion. However, whether part time (or temporary Zeitarbeit) is what they want, it is increasingly what they are likely to find. As we will see in my next installment of the great Bertrand Benoit searching for a solid idea wild goose chase.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
German Births Q1 2007
From the German Statistical Office:
1st quarter of 2007: Births rising just slightly
WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office on the basis of provisional results, the number of live births in the first quarter of 2007 (149,300 children) rose just slightly (+0.4%) on the same quarter of 2006 (148,700). The number of boys born was 76,700, that of girls 72,600. The high rates of increase as reported by some media were hence not achieved.
1st quarter of 2007: Births rising just slightly
WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office on the basis of provisional results, the number of live births in the first quarter of 2007 (149,300 children) rose just slightly (+0.4%) on the same quarter of 2006 (148,700). The number of boys born was 76,700, that of girls 72,600. The high rates of increase as reported by some media were hence not achieved.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Is There a Deadline for Parenthood?
Is There a Deadline for Parenthood?
An Example from Poland
Monika Mynarska
Abstract
The postponement of childbearing is occurring across Europe and the USA, but the paths of this trend differ profoundly from country to country. In Poland, as in other Central and Eastern European countries, most women have their first child at a relatively young age. This paper asks about the role of age norms in sustaining the pattern of early motherhood. We investigate young adults’ perceptions of age in relation to their fertility choices. We find that age is indeed a salient dimension that structures and regulates individual childbearing plans. The qualitative approach of our study allows for gaining insights into how age norms are explained, argued about and sanctioned. We also reconstruct the mechanisms of the normative influence of age limits (deadlines) on fertility behavior. Thus, the study not only improves our understanding of the timing of childbearing but also contributes to the general discussion on age norms.
An Example from Poland
Monika Mynarska
Abstract
The postponement of childbearing is occurring across Europe and the USA, but the paths of this trend differ profoundly from country to country. In Poland, as in other Central and Eastern European countries, most women have their first child at a relatively young age. This paper asks about the role of age norms in sustaining the pattern of early motherhood. We investigate young adults’ perceptions of age in relation to their fertility choices. We find that age is indeed a salient dimension that structures and regulates individual childbearing plans. The qualitative approach of our study allows for gaining insights into how age norms are explained, argued about and sanctioned. We also reconstruct the mechanisms of the normative influence of age limits (deadlines) on fertility behavior. Thus, the study not only improves our understanding of the timing of childbearing but also contributes to the general discussion on age norms.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Family Benefits in Germany
This file is useful.
The family allowance is paid for all children up to the age of eighteen. From 1st January, 2007, the period during which the family allowance is paid has been prolonged up to the age of 25 for children undergoing training, and up to age 21 for children without a job. For children undergoing training, who reach the age of 26 and 27 years (birth years 1980-1981), the period during which the family allowance is paid will be continued up to the age of 27; for children undergoing training, who turn 25 in 2007 (birth year 1982), it will be paid until the age of 26 years. Should military or civilian service (which suspend the payment of family allowance) be undertaken by the child during this period, the maximum age-limit is adjusted correspondingly. There is no age-limit for handicapped children who are unable to earn their living.
As is this whole thread.
The family allowance is paid for all children up to the age of eighteen. From 1st January, 2007, the period during which the family allowance is paid has been prolonged up to the age of 25 for children undergoing training, and up to age 21 for children without a job. For children undergoing training, who reach the age of 26 and 27 years (birth years 1980-1981), the period during which the family allowance is paid will be continued up to the age of 27; for children undergoing training, who turn 25 in 2007 (birth year 1982), it will be paid until the age of 26 years. Should military or civilian service (which suspend the payment of family allowance) be undertaken by the child during this period, the maximum age-limit is adjusted correspondingly. There is no age-limit for handicapped children who are unable to earn their living.
As is this whole thread.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Polish Migrants and the Scottish Birth Rate
From the Scotsman:
Polish immigrants swell Scotland's new baby boom
IMMIGRANTS from eastern Europe have helped trigger a baby boom in Scotland this year, new official figures have revealed.
There were 646 more babies born in the first quarter of 2007. Of that number, one in five were born to mothers from Eastern Europe.
It is the first time the General Register Office for Scotland has broken down its statistics to uncover the extent of the impact on Scotland's population of mass immigration from Eastern Europe.
A spokesman said: "Births in Scotland went up by 646 as a whole compared with the first quarter of 2006.
"One in five of those babies were born to parents from the EU accession states.
"Of that number, the majority of babies were born to Polish parents, followed by parents from Latvia."
In the past four years, about 600,000 eastern European immigrants have arrived in the UK from the eight nations that have recently joined the EU, including Poland, which joined in 2004, and Romania and Bulgaria, which joined this year.
The Executive believes there are about 40,000 Poles living in Scotland, while the Polish Council believes there are about 50,000. The true figure could be as high as 100,000.
The figures released yesterday showed that while the birth rate in Scotland has continued to grow this year, it was outweighed by the number of deaths.
The first three months of 2007 saw 14,214 babies born, an increase of 4.8 per cent on the same period the previous year.
It continues a five-year trend and is the highest number during the first quarter of the year since 1997.
However, deaths increased by 6.3 per cent from 14,876 to 15,818, the highest total since the same period in 2000.
While the number of deaths from cancer fell by 0.6 per cent, deaths from coronary heart disease increased by 2.4 per cent and deaths from stroke by 1.9 per cent.
The figures give Scotland an estimated population of 5,116,900.
The Registrar General for Scotland, Duncan Macniven, said: "The increase in the number of deaths was disappointing, though it was partly a reflection of the unprecedentedly small number of deaths in the first quarter of 2006.
"The increase was relatively small and it is too early to suggest a change in the trend of a falling death rate."
The figures also showed that the number of marriages dropped, by 4.6 per cent from 3,493 to 3,333, and - as had been expected - the number of same-sex civil partnerships also fell.
Robert Whelan, of the Civitas think tank, said: "We have to bear in mind with immigration that we are not just looking at the numbers of adults coming into the country, but at large numbers of children being born.
"It will make a growing difference to the balance of the population because birth rates among the existing population are low. Immigrant groups have higher birth rates than the existing population."
• THE most popular names for Polish children are quite different from Jack and Sophie - the names most often chosen by parents of Scottish children.
The most popular name for a Polish baby boy is Jan, with Anna being the favourite name for a girl.
Following Jan, the names most commonly picked by Polish parents for boys are: Andrzej, Piotr, Krzysztof, Stanislaw, Tomasz, Pawel, Józef, Marcin and Marek.
For girls, the next most popular after Anna are: Maria, Katarzyna, Malgorzata, Agnieszka, Krystyna, Barbara, Ewa, Elzbieta and Zofia.
Polish immigrants swell Scotland's new baby boom
IMMIGRANTS from eastern Europe have helped trigger a baby boom in Scotland this year, new official figures have revealed.
There were 646 more babies born in the first quarter of 2007. Of that number, one in five were born to mothers from Eastern Europe.
It is the first time the General Register Office for Scotland has broken down its statistics to uncover the extent of the impact on Scotland's population of mass immigration from Eastern Europe.
A spokesman said: "Births in Scotland went up by 646 as a whole compared with the first quarter of 2006.
"One in five of those babies were born to parents from the EU accession states.
"Of that number, the majority of babies were born to Polish parents, followed by parents from Latvia."
In the past four years, about 600,000 eastern European immigrants have arrived in the UK from the eight nations that have recently joined the EU, including Poland, which joined in 2004, and Romania and Bulgaria, which joined this year.
The Executive believes there are about 40,000 Poles living in Scotland, while the Polish Council believes there are about 50,000. The true figure could be as high as 100,000.
The figures released yesterday showed that while the birth rate in Scotland has continued to grow this year, it was outweighed by the number of deaths.
The first three months of 2007 saw 14,214 babies born, an increase of 4.8 per cent on the same period the previous year.
It continues a five-year trend and is the highest number during the first quarter of the year since 1997.
However, deaths increased by 6.3 per cent from 14,876 to 15,818, the highest total since the same period in 2000.
While the number of deaths from cancer fell by 0.6 per cent, deaths from coronary heart disease increased by 2.4 per cent and deaths from stroke by 1.9 per cent.
The figures give Scotland an estimated population of 5,116,900.
The Registrar General for Scotland, Duncan Macniven, said: "The increase in the number of deaths was disappointing, though it was partly a reflection of the unprecedentedly small number of deaths in the first quarter of 2006.
"The increase was relatively small and it is too early to suggest a change in the trend of a falling death rate."
The figures also showed that the number of marriages dropped, by 4.6 per cent from 3,493 to 3,333, and - as had been expected - the number of same-sex civil partnerships also fell.
Robert Whelan, of the Civitas think tank, said: "We have to bear in mind with immigration that we are not just looking at the numbers of adults coming into the country, but at large numbers of children being born.
"It will make a growing difference to the balance of the population because birth rates among the existing population are low. Immigrant groups have higher birth rates than the existing population."
• THE most popular names for Polish children are quite different from Jack and Sophie - the names most often chosen by parents of Scottish children.
The most popular name for a Polish baby boy is Jan, with Anna being the favourite name for a girl.
Following Jan, the names most commonly picked by Polish parents for boys are: Andrzej, Piotr, Krzysztof, Stanislaw, Tomasz, Pawel, Józef, Marcin and Marek.
For girls, the next most popular after Anna are: Maria, Katarzyna, Malgorzata, Agnieszka, Krystyna, Barbara, Ewa, Elzbieta and Zofia.
Sunday, July 08, 2007
Latvians Abroad
EU Business has this:
Outgoing Latvian leader hopes migrants will return to boost homeland
RIGA) - In a farewell address to Latvians Saturday, outgoing President Vaira Vike-Freiberga said she hoped the thousands of citizens who now work in Ireland would someday return home to boost the Baltic country.
Vike-Freiberga, who is stepping down after two four-year terms as head of state of the former Soviet-ruled republic, helped steer Latvia into the European Union and NATO in 2004.
In a televised speech, Vike-Freiberga recalled that she had forecast how freedom of movement within the EU would "lure the most energetic and able of our people abroad."
"Latvia misses their absence painfully," she said.
"Every single person is needed by this country. We expect them back dearly. They will return with the capital of knowledge, wealth, experience."
Latvian authorities estimate that about 50,000 people from the Baltic country work in other EU countries, mainly in Britain and Ireland, which is now home to some 22,000 Latvians.
The departures have dented the labour force in Latvia, which has a population of just 2.3 million people.
However, Vike-Freiberga recalled a remark by her Irish counterpart, President Mary McAleese, that migration was "the opportunity for both sides to benefit."
"Ireland has not always been as affluent and successful as it is now," said Vike-Freiberga, adding that it "had to go through some very tough times."
Emigration from Latvia is driven in part by the fact that the minimum wage here -- 90 lats a month (129 euros, 176 dollars) -- is one of the lowest in the 27-nation EU.
In addition, breakneck growth is going hand in hand with rampant inflation, and there are increasing jitters about a "hard landing" for the Latvian economy.
"We will also get through these difficult times, maybe even faster than the Irish whom we so admire," said Vike-Freiberga.
Studies have shown that the gap in wealth between the richest and poorest Latvians is among the greatest in the EU, with the income of the top 20 percent a full 6.7 times higher than that of the bottom 20 percent in recent years.
"We have proportionally more millionaires than in some other more developed countries. Meanwhile, we have many people who live under the poverty line," said Vike-Freiberga.
"The task of the future is to narrow this gap, so that the rich sustain the country, given all the resources that a democracy provides them, and the less fortunate can move forward in society, so that we can create a stable middle class which is a guarantee of democracy," she added.
The highly popular Vike-Freiberga was first elected president in 1999 and won a second term in 2003.
Her successor, Valdis Zatlers, is due to be sworn in on Sunday.
Outgoing Latvian leader hopes migrants will return to boost homeland
RIGA) - In a farewell address to Latvians Saturday, outgoing President Vaira Vike-Freiberga said she hoped the thousands of citizens who now work in Ireland would someday return home to boost the Baltic country.
Vike-Freiberga, who is stepping down after two four-year terms as head of state of the former Soviet-ruled republic, helped steer Latvia into the European Union and NATO in 2004.
In a televised speech, Vike-Freiberga recalled that she had forecast how freedom of movement within the EU would "lure the most energetic and able of our people abroad."
"Latvia misses their absence painfully," she said.
"Every single person is needed by this country. We expect them back dearly. They will return with the capital of knowledge, wealth, experience."
Latvian authorities estimate that about 50,000 people from the Baltic country work in other EU countries, mainly in Britain and Ireland, which is now home to some 22,000 Latvians.
The departures have dented the labour force in Latvia, which has a population of just 2.3 million people.
However, Vike-Freiberga recalled a remark by her Irish counterpart, President Mary McAleese, that migration was "the opportunity for both sides to benefit."
"Ireland has not always been as affluent and successful as it is now," said Vike-Freiberga, adding that it "had to go through some very tough times."
Emigration from Latvia is driven in part by the fact that the minimum wage here -- 90 lats a month (129 euros, 176 dollars) -- is one of the lowest in the 27-nation EU.
In addition, breakneck growth is going hand in hand with rampant inflation, and there are increasing jitters about a "hard landing" for the Latvian economy.
"We will also get through these difficult times, maybe even faster than the Irish whom we so admire," said Vike-Freiberga.
Studies have shown that the gap in wealth between the richest and poorest Latvians is among the greatest in the EU, with the income of the top 20 percent a full 6.7 times higher than that of the bottom 20 percent in recent years.
"We have proportionally more millionaires than in some other more developed countries. Meanwhile, we have many people who live under the poverty line," said Vike-Freiberga.
"The task of the future is to narrow this gap, so that the rich sustain the country, given all the resources that a democracy provides them, and the less fortunate can move forward in society, so that we can create a stable middle class which is a guarantee of democracy," she added.
The highly popular Vike-Freiberga was first elected president in 1999 and won a second term in 2003.
Her successor, Valdis Zatlers, is due to be sworn in on Sunday.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
EU 8 Health Worker Migrant Intentions
From:Labour Mobility in the Enlarged European Union: International Migration from the EU8 countries it is possible to speculate that Polish emigrants substituted other destination countries for Germany with the new possibilities that arose upon accession to the EU (Fihel, 2006).
Friday, June 29, 2007
Migration in South Korea
This piece from the Japanese paper Asahi on migration in Asia caught my eye:
Asia: S. Korea, Singapore turn birthrate tide with immigration
BY TAKESHI KAMIYA, THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
SEOUL--Declining birthrates are a problem that Japan shares with South Korea and Singapore.
But unlike Japan, which has yet to open its doors widely to immigration, these two countries are welcoming people from elsewhere in Asia to fill the gap.
In South Korea, the main struggle has been felt in depopulated farm and fishing villages.
Now, brides from China and Southeast Asian countries are settling down with local bachelors hoping to raise the next crop of farmers.
In Singapore, the government plans to bring in about 2 million immigrants--or nearly half of the current population--to maintain growth.
The squalling of babies is a welcome sound these days among the roughly 40 households in Guzi village in Jeollabuk-do province in southwestern South Korea.
Rice farmer Paek In Ki, 37, and his Vietnamese wife, Tran Thi Thanh Thuy, 25, welcomed their first child--a girl--in 2004. Their son was born late last year. The couple wed in 2003.
In this traditional farming village, Confucianism still exerts a strong influence. Thanh Thuy cooks up local delicacies to celebrate Confucian events, and she works in the rice paddies and strawberry fields alongside her husband.
"She is now a crucial member of this village," Paek said.
Thanh Thuy says she feels right at home. "The farming and Confucian events are similar to the way I grew up in Vietnam. I don't feel any difference here," she said.
International marriages are on the rise in rural South Korea. According to the Korea National Statistical Office, of about 8,600 farmers, forestry workers and fishermen who got married in 2006, 41 percent got hitched to women from other countries.
Of all South Korean men who married foreign women in 2006, about 11,000 took Vietnamese brides, a 74 percent rise from the previous year. Many marriages were made through brokers.
Not all those matches were love at first sight, but appearance did play a factor.
Paek cited a pragmatic reason for choosing Thanh Thuy. "She looks South Korean, so I thought our children would not face discrimination," he said.
In 2005, the South Korean birthrate--the number of children a woman has in her lifetime--fell to 1.08 children on average. That figure was even lower than Japan's birthrate of 1.26 and ranks among the world's lowest.
Moreover, in rural villages, the gender imbalance is growing wider, in part because of fetal sex selection techniques, similar to those that have led to serious population problems in China and India.
According to Yang Soon Mi, an official of the National Rural Development Institute, illegal prenatal sex selection is rising because of the declining birthrate and a traditional preference for male children.
Some estimates show that, within three years, the male-to-female imbalance will widen to 120 to 100.
The shortage of brides in rural areas has led male villagers to head to cities. That has reduced the work force, and in turn, led to fewer young families and fewer children in the countryside.
However, it is often difficult for women from other cultures to fit in with Korean farm families, leading some to give up and return home in defeat.
The biggest troubles are communicating with their husbands or their mothers-in-law.
According to a support group for foreign women, one woman was rejected by her husband when he discovered that she was sterile. Another woman said that her husband physically abused her when she disobeyed her mother-in-law's dictates.
South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry now regards immigrant women as important "human resources for farm villages." It is working to make things easier on these Asian brides.
This year, the ministry is training 300 counselors who will teach immigrant women the Korean language or offer advice on common problems. The counselors are being dispatched throughout South Korea's farming villages.
The government is also offering financial assistance to enable the foreign brides to afford trips to their home countries to see the families they left behind.
Most of these marriages were arranged through brokers, which has led some international human rights organizations in the United States and Europe to label them "marriages close to human trafficking."
However, according to Yang, "Foreign women are now indispensable to South Korea's farming villages. They can really improve things, so we should not view them negatively. We need to create ways to help them soon."
In Singapore, meanwhile, a ceremony was held in mid-April at a public hall in the eastern part of the city-state to welcome 91 people who had just been granted Singaporean citizenship. The immigrants were mostly from India, China and Malaysia.
After receiving a citizenship certificate from Deputy Prime Minister Shunmugam Jayakumar, each newcomer placed his or her right hand on their heart and swore, "We, Singaporean citizens, pledge to build a democratic society irrespective of race, language or religion."
Jayakumar congratulated the group, and said that both Singapore's native citizens and its adopted brethren must make efforts to get along.
In March, the Singaporean government said it plans to raise the population from the current 4.5 million to 6.5 million through immigration.
Singapore's birthrate fell to 1.25 per woman in 2006.
Pauline Straughan, an associate professor of medical sociology at the National University of Singapore, cited these reasons for the decline:
・Married couples with higher education have increased, and they spend much money for the education of their children. Thus, they are having fewer children.
・Temporary employment contracts of one to two years are on the rise, leaving would-be mothers unable to afford to become pregnant. That is because maternity leaves could obstruct their promotion.
Straughan noted that, as long as young people have uncertain job prospects, the birthrate will never rebound.
Singapore's increased immigration policy is a desperate measure to retain its prosperity and battle the declining birthrate.
However, hurdles for obtaining permanent residency or citizenship are high, as the main reason for accepting immigrants is economic growth. Preference is given to immigrants who bring with them skills and wealth to contribute to Singapore's future.
Unskilled workers, meanwhile, are unwelcome, in part because of fears of social unrest.
In 2003, the government began granting permanent residence status to individuals who had invested at least S$2 million (about 160 million yen) in the country per person through real estate or stock purchases, among other investments.
Researchers in fields such as information technology or biotechnology are also welcome to apply for permanent residency. This year, the government began issuing working visas that make it easier for highly skilled workers to find employment in Singapore.
But Singapore also imposed strict restrictions on its about 500,000 unskilled immigrant workers, which include maids and construction workers. Such workers can only live in certain areas and are prohibited from marrying people with Singaporean citizenship or permanent residency.
Female temporary workers face deportation if they become pregnant.
In addition, many Singaporean citizens fear competition for jobs could intensify with a rise in immigrants.
"We have to work harder not to lose our jobs. We are too busy working to raise our own children, which is why the birthrate is falling," said a 38-year-old Singaporean man who runs a consulting firm. His wife, 34, is a national library employee.
Each year, 10,000 to 13,000 people become citizens, and about 50,000 people receive permanent residency.
However, Singapore's Ministry of Home Affairs does not reveal details on their origins, fearing a backlash could worsen diplomatic relations with their home countries, officials said.
Asia: S. Korea, Singapore turn birthrate tide with immigration
BY TAKESHI KAMIYA, THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
SEOUL--Declining birthrates are a problem that Japan shares with South Korea and Singapore.
But unlike Japan, which has yet to open its doors widely to immigration, these two countries are welcoming people from elsewhere in Asia to fill the gap.
In South Korea, the main struggle has been felt in depopulated farm and fishing villages.
Now, brides from China and Southeast Asian countries are settling down with local bachelors hoping to raise the next crop of farmers.
In Singapore, the government plans to bring in about 2 million immigrants--or nearly half of the current population--to maintain growth.
The squalling of babies is a welcome sound these days among the roughly 40 households in Guzi village in Jeollabuk-do province in southwestern South Korea.
Rice farmer Paek In Ki, 37, and his Vietnamese wife, Tran Thi Thanh Thuy, 25, welcomed their first child--a girl--in 2004. Their son was born late last year. The couple wed in 2003.
In this traditional farming village, Confucianism still exerts a strong influence. Thanh Thuy cooks up local delicacies to celebrate Confucian events, and she works in the rice paddies and strawberry fields alongside her husband.
"She is now a crucial member of this village," Paek said.
Thanh Thuy says she feels right at home. "The farming and Confucian events are similar to the way I grew up in Vietnam. I don't feel any difference here," she said.
International marriages are on the rise in rural South Korea. According to the Korea National Statistical Office, of about 8,600 farmers, forestry workers and fishermen who got married in 2006, 41 percent got hitched to women from other countries.
Of all South Korean men who married foreign women in 2006, about 11,000 took Vietnamese brides, a 74 percent rise from the previous year. Many marriages were made through brokers.
Not all those matches were love at first sight, but appearance did play a factor.
Paek cited a pragmatic reason for choosing Thanh Thuy. "She looks South Korean, so I thought our children would not face discrimination," he said.
In 2005, the South Korean birthrate--the number of children a woman has in her lifetime--fell to 1.08 children on average. That figure was even lower than Japan's birthrate of 1.26 and ranks among the world's lowest.
Moreover, in rural villages, the gender imbalance is growing wider, in part because of fetal sex selection techniques, similar to those that have led to serious population problems in China and India.
According to Yang Soon Mi, an official of the National Rural Development Institute, illegal prenatal sex selection is rising because of the declining birthrate and a traditional preference for male children.
Some estimates show that, within three years, the male-to-female imbalance will widen to 120 to 100.
The shortage of brides in rural areas has led male villagers to head to cities. That has reduced the work force, and in turn, led to fewer young families and fewer children in the countryside.
However, it is often difficult for women from other cultures to fit in with Korean farm families, leading some to give up and return home in defeat.
The biggest troubles are communicating with their husbands or their mothers-in-law.
According to a support group for foreign women, one woman was rejected by her husband when he discovered that she was sterile. Another woman said that her husband physically abused her when she disobeyed her mother-in-law's dictates.
South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry now regards immigrant women as important "human resources for farm villages." It is working to make things easier on these Asian brides.
This year, the ministry is training 300 counselors who will teach immigrant women the Korean language or offer advice on common problems. The counselors are being dispatched throughout South Korea's farming villages.
The government is also offering financial assistance to enable the foreign brides to afford trips to their home countries to see the families they left behind.
Most of these marriages were arranged through brokers, which has led some international human rights organizations in the United States and Europe to label them "marriages close to human trafficking."
However, according to Yang, "Foreign women are now indispensable to South Korea's farming villages. They can really improve things, so we should not view them negatively. We need to create ways to help them soon."
In Singapore, meanwhile, a ceremony was held in mid-April at a public hall in the eastern part of the city-state to welcome 91 people who had just been granted Singaporean citizenship. The immigrants were mostly from India, China and Malaysia.
After receiving a citizenship certificate from Deputy Prime Minister Shunmugam Jayakumar, each newcomer placed his or her right hand on their heart and swore, "We, Singaporean citizens, pledge to build a democratic society irrespective of race, language or religion."
Jayakumar congratulated the group, and said that both Singapore's native citizens and its adopted brethren must make efforts to get along.
In March, the Singaporean government said it plans to raise the population from the current 4.5 million to 6.5 million through immigration.
Singapore's birthrate fell to 1.25 per woman in 2006.
Pauline Straughan, an associate professor of medical sociology at the National University of Singapore, cited these reasons for the decline:
・Married couples with higher education have increased, and they spend much money for the education of their children. Thus, they are having fewer children.
・Temporary employment contracts of one to two years are on the rise, leaving would-be mothers unable to afford to become pregnant. That is because maternity leaves could obstruct their promotion.
Straughan noted that, as long as young people have uncertain job prospects, the birthrate will never rebound.
Singapore's increased immigration policy is a desperate measure to retain its prosperity and battle the declining birthrate.
However, hurdles for obtaining permanent residency or citizenship are high, as the main reason for accepting immigrants is economic growth. Preference is given to immigrants who bring with them skills and wealth to contribute to Singapore's future.
Unskilled workers, meanwhile, are unwelcome, in part because of fears of social unrest.
In 2003, the government began granting permanent residence status to individuals who had invested at least S$2 million (about 160 million yen) in the country per person through real estate or stock purchases, among other investments.
Researchers in fields such as information technology or biotechnology are also welcome to apply for permanent residency. This year, the government began issuing working visas that make it easier for highly skilled workers to find employment in Singapore.
But Singapore also imposed strict restrictions on its about 500,000 unskilled immigrant workers, which include maids and construction workers. Such workers can only live in certain areas and are prohibited from marrying people with Singaporean citizenship or permanent residency.
Female temporary workers face deportation if they become pregnant.
In addition, many Singaporean citizens fear competition for jobs could intensify with a rise in immigrants.
"We have to work harder not to lose our jobs. We are too busy working to raise our own children, which is why the birthrate is falling," said a 38-year-old Singaporean man who runs a consulting firm. His wife, 34, is a national library employee.
Each year, 10,000 to 13,000 people become citizens, and about 50,000 people receive permanent residency.
However, Singapore's Ministry of Home Affairs does not reveal details on their origins, fearing a backlash could worsen diplomatic relations with their home countries, officials said.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Latvian and Irish Population Pyramids
Latvian Population Pyramids 2006 and 2025
Ireland Population Pyramids 1986 and 2000
Ireland Population Pyramids 1986 and 2000
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Migration's Flip Side
From the IHT:
In this poor but proud farming region, where many of the small wooden houses have no electricity and people still read by candlelight, nearly every third home sits empty. Their occupants have gone to pick mushrooms in Ireland.
When Laima Muktupavela left more than three years ago, she moved into a dusty three-room house near Dublin with 11 other Latvians and picked mushrooms from 6 a.m. to sundown. The farm's owner forbade the Latvians to wear gloves and the mushrooms quickly turned her fingers black. She sautéed mushrooms for breakfast, lunch and dinner. She earned about 215, or $250, a week - more than one and a half times the monthly minimum wage back home - and splurged on a new gray wool coat.
Back in Latvia, her four children felt abandoned. Her 16-year-old daughter, Anna, sent angry letters in envelopes filled with her baby pictures. Her partner, who is now her husband, met someone else.
Tormented by the prospect of permanent exile, Muktupavela returned to Latvia. She wrote a book about her experiences, "The Mushroom Covenant," which tapped into the national fear about the growing exodus of Latvians to Ireland. It became a best seller.
"There is hardly a family left in this country who hasn't lost a son or daughter or mother or father to the mushroom farms of Ireland," said Muktupavela, an ebullient 43-year-old.
She pointed to a vast field peppered with abandoned houses, their occupants departed to the handful of European Union countries - Ireland, Sweden, Britain - that opened their borders to the bloc's newest members when they joined in May 2004.
Freedom to cross the EU's borders unhindered was a reward of membership that natives in this Baltic country of 2.3 million people aspired to after 50 years of Soviet occupation.
But as other EU countries grapple with whether to admit inexpensive laborers from Eastern and Central Europe, fearful that it will undermine their social standards, the case of Latvia shows how migration can exact a heavy toll on the country they leave behind.
While there are no official statistics, Latvian officials estimate that 50,000 to 100,000 people have emigrated over the last 18 months, as many as 25,000 of them to Ireland. In the latest high-profile departure, Latvians watched with horror last month when the Olympic biathlete Jekabs Nakums announced on television that he was leaving to go wash cars in Ireland.
The exodus of economic migrants from Eastern Europe to their wealthier neighbors in the West has been a growing phenomenon since EU expansion last year. But the trend has been particularly pronounced in Latvia because the country's average monthly minimum wage of 90 lats, or 130, is the lowest in the 25-member bloc, while price increases since accession have been highest here.
In this poor but proud farming region, where many of the small wooden houses have no electricity and people still read by candlelight, nearly every third home sits empty. Their occupants have gone to pick mushrooms in Ireland.
When Laima Muktupavela left more than three years ago, she moved into a dusty three-room house near Dublin with 11 other Latvians and picked mushrooms from 6 a.m. to sundown. The farm's owner forbade the Latvians to wear gloves and the mushrooms quickly turned her fingers black. She sautéed mushrooms for breakfast, lunch and dinner. She earned about 215, or $250, a week - more than one and a half times the monthly minimum wage back home - and splurged on a new gray wool coat.
Back in Latvia, her four children felt abandoned. Her 16-year-old daughter, Anna, sent angry letters in envelopes filled with her baby pictures. Her partner, who is now her husband, met someone else.
Tormented by the prospect of permanent exile, Muktupavela returned to Latvia. She wrote a book about her experiences, "The Mushroom Covenant," which tapped into the national fear about the growing exodus of Latvians to Ireland. It became a best seller.
"There is hardly a family left in this country who hasn't lost a son or daughter or mother or father to the mushroom farms of Ireland," said Muktupavela, an ebullient 43-year-old.
She pointed to a vast field peppered with abandoned houses, their occupants departed to the handful of European Union countries - Ireland, Sweden, Britain - that opened their borders to the bloc's newest members when they joined in May 2004.
Freedom to cross the EU's borders unhindered was a reward of membership that natives in this Baltic country of 2.3 million people aspired to after 50 years of Soviet occupation.
But as other EU countries grapple with whether to admit inexpensive laborers from Eastern and Central Europe, fearful that it will undermine their social standards, the case of Latvia shows how migration can exact a heavy toll on the country they leave behind.
While there are no official statistics, Latvian officials estimate that 50,000 to 100,000 people have emigrated over the last 18 months, as many as 25,000 of them to Ireland. In the latest high-profile departure, Latvians watched with horror last month when the Olympic biathlete Jekabs Nakums announced on television that he was leaving to go wash cars in Ireland.
The exodus of economic migrants from Eastern Europe to their wealthier neighbors in the West has been a growing phenomenon since EU expansion last year. But the trend has been particularly pronounced in Latvia because the country's average monthly minimum wage of 90 lats, or 130, is the lowest in the 25-member bloc, while price increases since accession have been highest here.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Latvia and Kaliningrad
This, from the Itar-Tass News Agency:
Latvia encourages ethnic Russians to move to Kaliningrad
21.06.2007, 16.05
KALININGRAD, June 21 (Itar-Tass) - Latvian companies are prepared to build housing in the Kaliningrad region for people resettled from Latvia, a meeting of Vice- premier of the Kaliningrad government Yuri Shalimov with President of the Russo-Latvian Association for Cooperation Boris Katkov and representatives of Latvian construction companies was told, the press service of the Kaliningrad government told Tass.
Many people in Latvia would like to move to the Kaliningrad region, Katkov said. Young educated people who want to open their own business account for the biggest share of potential residents. As many as 109 families have been preparing documents in the framework of a state Program of Resettlement of Compatriots, and around 500 are on waiting list. The number of those who wish to move to the Kaliningrad region might grow given a better opportunity of housing in the Kaliningrad region, Katkov said.
Latvian businessmen suggested that every family moving to Russia might lease their houses in Latvia and used the money raised to pay off credits borrowed at Latvian banks for purchase of housing. Latvian construction companies want to build several compounds in the Kaliningrad region, employing construction workers from Kaliningrad construction companies.
A first group of people resettled from Latvia arrived in the Kaliningrad region last week. The Kaliningrad region is planning to accommodate around 300,000 compatriots in the following five years.
Latvia encourages ethnic Russians to move to Kaliningrad
21.06.2007, 16.05
KALININGRAD, June 21 (Itar-Tass) - Latvian companies are prepared to build housing in the Kaliningrad region for people resettled from Latvia, a meeting of Vice- premier of the Kaliningrad government Yuri Shalimov with President of the Russo-Latvian Association for Cooperation Boris Katkov and representatives of Latvian construction companies was told, the press service of the Kaliningrad government told Tass.
Many people in Latvia would like to move to the Kaliningrad region, Katkov said. Young educated people who want to open their own business account for the biggest share of potential residents. As many as 109 families have been preparing documents in the framework of a state Program of Resettlement of Compatriots, and around 500 are on waiting list. The number of those who wish to move to the Kaliningrad region might grow given a better opportunity of housing in the Kaliningrad region, Katkov said.
Latvian businessmen suggested that every family moving to Russia might lease their houses in Latvia and used the money raised to pay off credits borrowed at Latvian banks for purchase of housing. Latvian construction companies want to build several compounds in the Kaliningrad region, employing construction workers from Kaliningrad construction companies.
A first group of people resettled from Latvia arrived in the Kaliningrad region last week. The Kaliningrad region is planning to accommodate around 300,000 compatriots in the following five years.
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