Sunday, December 18, 2005

Life Course Theory

Life Course Theory Link:

This is an interesting paper.

Fertility Trap Links

Lutz, Wolfgang, Maria Rita Testa, Vegard Skirbekk, 2006. The "Low Fertility Trap" Hypothesis, Paper presented at the Population Association of America (PAA) 2006 Annual Meeting, March 30 - April 1, Los Angeles, California

Lutz, Wolfgang, Maria Rita Testa, Vegard Skirbekk, 2005. The "Low Fertility Trap" Hypothesis power point presentation at the Postponement of Childbearing in Europe conference held at the Vienna Institute of Demography, 1-3 December 2005, Vienna, Austria

Health Longevity and Economic Growth Links

Bloom, David E, David Canning and Michael Moore, 2004. The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving, NBER Working Paper 10919, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Bloom, David E, David Canning, and Dean T. Jamison, Health, Wealth, and Welfare, IMF publications, Finance & Development March 2004.

Uncertainty and Childbearing

Kumar Bhaumik, Simon and Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2002. Does Economic Uncertainty Have an Impact on Decisions to Bear Children? Evidence From Eastern Germany,University of Michigan Business School, William Davidson Working Paper Number 491, July 2002

Age Structure

Bloom, David E, and David Canning, 2001. Parsimonious Estimation of Age Structure Effects, University of Harvard, Mimeo

Thursday, October 06, 2005

Nasty Brutish and Short Online Bibliography

Other references

William Ogilvy Kermack and the Childhood Origins of Adult Health and Disease by George Davey Smith and Diana Kuhb

The child is father of the man.’ The relationship between child health and adult mortality in the 19th and 20th centuries by Bernard Harris

Height and risk of death among men and women: aetiological implications of associations with cardiorespiratory disease and cancer mortality by George Davey Smith, Carole Hart, Mark Upton, David Hole, Charles Gillis, Graham Watt, Victor Hawthorne

Caleb Finch: Evolution of the human lifespan: the nexus if inflamtion, diet and ageing.

Airborne infectious diseases during infancy and mortality in later life in southern Sweden, 1766–1894 by Tommy Bengtsson and Martin Lindström.

Fetal origins of coronary heart disease by David Barker.

Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans by Caleb E. Finch and Eileen M. Crimmins.

Comment on "Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans" Elisabetta Barbi and James W. Vaupel

Response to Comment on "Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans" by Caleb E. Finch and Eileen M. Crimmins

Inflammation and Life-Span by Calogero Caruso, Giuseppina Candore, Giuseppina Colonna-Romano, Domenico Lio, Claudio Franceschi;, Anthony G. Payne;, Caleb E. Finch, and Eileen M. Crimmins

E-Letter responses to: Caleb E. Finch and Eileen M. Crimmins "Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans"

Broken Limits to Life Expectancy by Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel.

Increase of Maximum Life-Span in Sweden, 1861-1999 by J. R. Wilmoth, L. J. Deegan, H. Lundström, S. Horiuchi

Lifespan depends on month of birth by Gabriele Doblhammer and James W. Vaupel.

Friedlander, Dov, Barbara S. Okun and Sharon Segal, 1999. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEN AND NOW:. PROCESSES, PERSPECTIVES AND ANALYSES, Journal of Family History, Vol. 24, No. 4, 493-533


Abramowitz, M. (1993), “The Search of the Sources of Growth: Areas of Ignorance, Old and New”, Journal of Economic History 53: 217-243.

Barbi, Elisabetta and James W. Vaupel, 2004, Comment on "Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans", Science 17 June 2005: Vol. 308. no. 5729, p. 1743

Barker, D. J. P., ed. 1992. Fetal and Infant Origins of Adult Disease. London: British Medical Journal.

Barker, D. J. P. (1994), Mothers, babies and disease in later life. London : British Medical Journal

Barro, R.J., and G.S. Becker (1989), “Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth”, Econometrica 57: 481-501.

Becker, G.S. (1981), A Treatise on the Family (Harvard University Press, Cambridge).

Becker, G.S. H.G. Lewis (1973), “On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children”, Journal of Political Economy 81: S279-S288.

Becker, G.S., K. Murphy and R. Tamura (1990),. “Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, October 98 : S12-S37.

Bengtsson, T (1993): A Re-Interpretation of Population Trends and Cycles in England, France and Sweden, 1751-1860, in Histoire & Mesure, VIII-1/2, 1993.

Bengtsson, T (1998), "Le pays nordiques de 1720 à 1914", in Bardet, J-P and Dupaquier, J (eds), Histoire des populations de l'europé, II. La rèvolution démographique 1750-1914. Fayard.

Bengtsson, T. and Martin Lindström, 2003, Airborne infectious diseases during infancy and mortality in later life in southern Sweden, 1766–1894, International Journal of Epidemiology 2003;32:286-294

Bentley, Gillian, T. Goldberg, and G. Jasienska. 1993. The fertility of agricultural and non-agricultural societies. Population Studies 47:269–81.

Bentley, Gillian, G. Jasienska, and T. Goldberg. 1993. Is the fertility of agriculturalists higher than that of nonagriculturalists? current anthropology 34:778–85.

Bhat, P. N. Mari. 1989. “Mortality and Fertility in India, 1881-1961: A Reassessment,” in India’s Historical Demography: Studies in Famine, Diseaseand Society. Tim Dyson, ed. London: Curzon Press, pp. 73-118.

Birdsall, Nancy, Allen C. Kelley and Steven Sinding, eds. 2003. Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bloom, D. E., D. Canning and Sevilla (2002). The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, CA, RAND.

Bloom, David, David Canning and Pia Malaney. 2000. “Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia,” in Population Change in East Asia, Transition, a supplement to Volume 26 of Population and Development Review.
Cyrus Chu and Ronald Lee, eds. New York: Population Council, pp. 257-90.

Bloom, D. and J. G.Williamson (1998), Demographic Transition and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, World Bank Economic Review 12: 419-455.

Blurton-Jones, N., Hawkes, K. and O’Connell, J. F. 1999. Some current ideas about the evolution of the human life history. In Comparative Primate Socioecology (ed. P. C. Lee). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Bongaarts, John. 2001. “Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post-Transitional Societies,” in Global Fertility Transition, a supplement to Volume 27 of Population and Development Review. Rodolfo Bulatao and John Casterline eds. New York: Population Council, pp. 260- 81.

Bongaarts, John. 1978. “A Framework for Analyzing the Proximate Determinants of Fertility.” Population and Development Review. 4:1, pp. 105- 32.

Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. 1998. “On the quantum and tempo of fertility,” Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291.

Boone, J. L. and Kessler, K. L. 1999. More status or more children? Social status, fertility reduction, and long-term Fitness. Evolution and Human Behavior, 20: 257–77.

Boucekkine, R, D. de la Croix and O. Licandro.(2003), “Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105: 401-418.

Calwell J, and B Caldwell, 2003. Pretransitional population control and equilibrium, in Population Studies 57(2):199-215, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Campbell, K. L. and J. W. Wood. 1988. "Fertility in traditional societies: Social and biological determinants" in Natural human fertility. Edited by P. Diggory, S. Teper, and M. Potts, pp. 39–69. London: Macmillan

Cambell, Cameron, Wang Feng and James Lee, 2002, Pre-Transition Fertility in China :Old Wine in New Bottles, Population and Development Review. December, 2002: 735-750.

Case, Anne, and Angus Deaton, 2005. “Health and wealth among the poor: India and South Africa compared,” American Economic Review, 95(2), May. (Papers and proceedings) May 2005.

Casterline, John. 2001. “The Pace of Fertility Transition: National Patterns in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century,” in Global Fertility Transition, a supplement to Volume 27 of Population and Development Review. Rodolfo Bulatao and John Casterline eds. New York: Population Council, pp. 17–52.

Chambers, J. D. (1972), Population, economy and society in pre-industrial England. London: Oxford University Press.

Chesnais, J-C (1992), The Demographic Transition. Stages, patterns, and Economic Implications. Clarendon Press. Oxford.

Chesnais, J. C. (1990). "Demographic-Transition Patterns and Their Impact On the Age
Structure." Population and Development Review 16(2): 327-336.

Clark, Gregory.The Economics of the Ascent of Man: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press (2005)

Coale, Ansley J. and Roy Treadway. 1986. “A Summary of the Changing Distribution of Overall Fertility, Marital Fertility, and the Proportion Married in the Provinces of Europe,” in The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cotts Watkins, eds. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 31– 181.

Coleman, David. Population regulation: a long-range view. In: The state of population theory: forward from Malthus, edited by David Coleman and Roger Schofield. 1986. 14-41 pp. Basil Blackwell: New York,

Crimmins Eileen M and Caleb E Finch, 2006. Infection, inflammation, height, and longevity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Jan 10;103(2):498-503.

Davis,K, 1963. “The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History,” Population Index 29(4) (1963): 345-66.

Davis, K. 1945. “The world demographic transition”, Annals of the American academy of political and social sciences, 237, pp. 1-11.

Deaton, Angus (2005), The Great Escape: A Review Essay on Fogel’s The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700–2100, Journal of economic Literature, Forthcoming

De la Croix D. and M. Doepke (2003), “Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters, ”American Economic Review, 93: 1091-1113.

Derrick, V. P. A. (1927), ”Observation on (1) error on age on the population statistics of England and Wales and (2) the changes of mortality indicated by the national records”, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 58.

Doblhammer, Gabriele, 2002b. The Late Life Legacy of Very Early Life, Demographic Research Monographs, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York

Doblhammer, Gabriele,2002a “Differences in Lifespan by Month of Birth for the United States: The Impact of Early Life Events and Conditions on Late Life Mortality,” Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Working Paper No. 2002–19.

Doblhammer, Gabriele and Vaupel, James W., “Lifespan Depends on Month of Birth,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2001, 98, pp. 2934–9.

Doepke, M. (2004), “Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth 9:

Doepke, M (2005) “Child Mortality and Fertility Decline: Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?,” Journal of Population Economics

Doepke, M. and F. Zilibotti (2003) “The Macroeconomics of Child Labor Regulation,” IIES, Stockholm University.

Dumond, D. 1975. The limitation of human population: a natural history. Science, 187: 713–21.

Ellison, Peter T. 2001. On Fertile Ground, A Natural History of Human Reproduction, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.

Fernandez-Villaverde J. (2003), “Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics”, University of Pennsylvania.

Finch, Caleb E. and Eileen M. Crimmins, 2004a, Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans, Science 17 September 2004: Vol. 305. no. 5691, pp. 1736 - 1739

Finch, Caleb E. and Eileen M. Crimmins, 2004b, Response to Comment on "Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans" Science 17 June 2005: Vol. 308. no. 5729, p. 1743

Fogel, R. W. (1996), ”The escape from hunger and premature death 1700-2100: Europe, America and the Third World”, the 1996 Ellen McArthur Lectures, Cambridge.

Fogel, R. W. (1994), ”The relevance of Malthus for the study of mortality today: Long-run influences on health, mortality, labour force participation, and population growth”, in Lindahl-Kiessling, K. and Landberg, H., eds., Population, economic development, and the environment. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 231-284.

Fogel, R. W. (1993), ”New sources and new techniques for the study of secular trends in nutritional status, health, mortality, and the process of aging”, Historical Methods, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 5-43.

Fogel, Robert W., and Dora L. Costa, (1997) “A theory of technophsyio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs,” Demography 1997, 34(1): 49-66.

Fridlizius, G. (1989), ”The deformation of cohorts: Nineteenth century mortality decline in a generational perspective”, Scandinavian economic history review, vol. 37, no. 3.

Fridlizus, G. (1984), ”The mortality decline in the first phase of the demographic transition: Swedish experiences”, in Bengtsson, T., Fridlizius, G. and Ohlsson, R., eds., Preindustrial population change: The mortality decline and short-term population movements. Lund: Amqvist & Wiksell International, pp. 71-114.

Galloway, P (1988), "Basic patterns in annual variaitons in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and prices in pre-industrial Europé", Population Studies, vol 42, no 2.

Galor, O., and D.N. Weil (1996), “The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth”, American Economic Review 86: 374-387.

Galor, O., and D.N. Weil (1999), “From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth”, American Economic Review, 89: 150-154.

Galor, O., and D.N. Weil (2000), “Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian regime to the Demographic Transition”, American Economic Review 110: 806-828.

Grundy, E, 2002 The McKeown Debate: Time for Burial, International Journal of Epidemiology 2005 34(3):529-533

Hansen, G., and E. Prescott (2002), “Malthus to Solow”, American Economic Review 92: 1205- 1217.

Hayden, B. 1972. Population control among hunter-gatherers. World Archaeology, 4: 205–21.

Helleiner, K. F. (1957), ”The vital revolution reconsidered”, Canadian journal of economics and political science, vol. 23, pp. 1-9.

L. Henry 1961, ‘Some data on natural fertility’, Eugenics Quarterly, 8: 81-91.

Hewlett, Barry S. 1991. Demography and childcare in preindustrial societies. Journal of Anthropological Research 47: 1–39.

Hill, K. and Hurtado, M. 1996. Ache Life History: The Ecology and Demography of a Foraging People. Chicago: Aldine de Gruyter.

Jones C.I. (2001), ”Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run” Advances in Macroeconomics 1 : 1-43.

Jones, H.B, 1956, A special consideration of the aging process, disease, and life expectancy, Adv Biol Med Phys. 1956;4:281-337

Kalemli-Ozcan, S. (2002), “Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth,” Journal of Economic Growth 7: 411-439.

Kalemli-Ozcan, S., H.E. Ryder and D. N. Weil (2000), “Mortality Decline,Human Capital Investment, and Economic Growth” Journal of Development Economics, 62: 1-23

Keckler, C. N. W. 1997. Catastrophic mortality in simulations of forager age-at death: where did all the humans go? In Integrating Archaeological Demography: Multidisciplinary Approaches to Prehistoric Populations (ed. R. Paine). Center for Archaeological Investigations Occasional Papers No. 24. Carbondale, IL: Southern Illinois University Press, pp. 205–27.

Kelly, Robert L. 1995. The Foraging Spectrum: Diversity in Hunter-Gatherer Lifeways.

Washington, D.C.: Smithsonian Institution Press.

Kermack, W. O., McKendrick, A. G. and McKinley, P. L. (1934), ”Death rates in Great Britain and Sweden: Some regularities and their significance”, The Lancet, March 1934.

Kremer, M. 1993, ”Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990”, Quarterly-Journalof-Economics 108, no 3.

Kuznets, Simon. 1967. "Population and Economic Growth," Proceedings of the American
Philosophical Society, Vol.111 (1967):170-93.

Lee, James Z. and Cameron Campbell. 1996. Fate and Fortune in Rural China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Lee, James and Wang Feng. 1999. One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythologies and Chinese Realities, 1700–2000. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Lee, James and Wang Feng. 1999. One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythologies and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Lee, Ronald D. 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (Fall 2003), 167-190.

Lee, Ronald. 1997. “Population Dynamics: Equilibrium,Disequilibrium, and Consequences of Fluctuations,” in Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Volume 1B. Mark Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds. Amsterdam: North Holland, pp. 1063–115.

Lee, Ronald. 1987. “Population Dynamics of Humans and Other Animals.” Demography. November, 24:4, pp. 443–66.

Lee, Ronald and Michael Anderson. 2002. “Malthus in State Space: Macro Economic - Demographic Relations in English History.” Journal of Population Economics. 15:2, pp. 195–220.

Livi-Bacci, Massimo. 2000.Europe. Oxford: Blackwell.

Lucas, R.E. (2002), The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future (Harvard University Press, Cambridge).

Malmberg, Bo & Lena Sommestad. (2000). Four Phases in the Demographic Transition, Implications for Economic and Social Development in Sweden, 1820-2000. Arbetsrapport/Institutet för Framtidsstudier;Working Paper 2000:6

Mancunovich, Diane J, 2002. “Economic Theories of Fertility”, in the Encyclopedia of Population, Revised Edition, edited by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll, New York and Detroit: Macmillan Reference Books

Mancunovich, Diane J, 2002. "The Baby Boomers", in the Macmillan Encyclopedia of Aging, edited by David Ekerdt, New York, MacMillan Reference Books

Mancunovich, Diane J, 2000. "Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition?" , Population and Development Review, 26:235-261

McKeown, Thomas. (1979) The Role of Medicine: Dream, Mirage, or Nemesis? Princeton, NJ.: Princeton University Press.

McKeown, Thomas, (1976) The modern rise of population, London: Edward Arnold.

Neugebauer,Richard, Hans Wijbrand Hoek, Ezra Susser, 1999. Prenatal Exposure to Wartime Famine and Development of Antisocial Personality Disorder in Early Adulthood, journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 282 No. 5, August 4, 1999.

Notestein, F W (1945): "Population - the long view", in Schultx, T W (ed.): Food for the World. Chicago.

Oeppen, Jim, and James W. Vaupel. (2002) “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy.” Science 296: 1029 - 31

Preston, Samuel H. 1996, American Longevity: Past Present, and Future, Syracuse University, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs,Center for Policy Research Policy Brief No. 7/1996.

Preston, Sam. 1980. “Causes and Consequences of Mortality Declines in Less Developed Countries During the Twentieth Century,” in Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries. Richard Easterlin, ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 289–360.

Preston, Samuel H.(1975) “The Changing Relation between Mortality and Level of Economic Development.” Population Studies 29 (1975): 231-48.

Preston, S. H. and van de Walle, E. (1978), ”Urban French history in the nineteenth century”, Population studies, vol. 32.

Schofield, R. S. (1984), ”Population growth in the century after 1750: the role of mortality decline”, in Bengtsson, T, Fridlizius, G, and Ohlsson, R., eds., Pre-industrial population change. Lund: Almqvist & Wiksell International, pp. 17-40.

Susser ES, S.P. Lin (1992), Schizophrenia after prenatal exposure to the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944-1945, Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1992 Dec;49(12):983-8.

Taeuber, I. B. (1945). "The Demographic Statistics of Southern and Eastern Asia." Journal of the American Statistical Association 40(229): 29-.37

Tamura, R.F. (2002), “Human Capital and the Switch From Agriculture to Industry”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 27: 207-242.

United Nations Population Division. 2002. Report Of The Expert Group Meeting On Completing the Fertility Transition. New York: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Weil, D.N. (2004), Economic Growth, (Addison Weseley, Boston).

Wilmoth J.R., L. J. Deegan, H. Lundström, and S. Horiuchi, 2000, Increase of Maximum Life-Span in Sweden, 1861-1999, Science 29 September 2000: Vol. 289. no. 5488, pp. 2366 - 2368

Wrigley, E. A. 1981. "Marriage, Fertility and Population Growth in Eighteenth-Century England," in R. B. Outhwaite, Marriage and Society: Studies in the Social History of Marriage.

Wrigley, E. A. and R. Schofield. 1983. “English Population History from Family Reconstitution: Summary Results, 1600-1799,” Population Studies, 37: 157-184.

Wrigley, E. A. and Schofield, R. S. (1981), The population history of England, 1541-1871: A reconstruction. London: Edward Arnold.

Van der Zee, Henri A, 1998, The Hunger Winter: Occupied Holland 1944-1945, University of Nebraska Press

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

The Second Stage and other references

Miscelaneous References

Brückner, H. & Mayer, K. U. (2005). “De-Standardization of the Life Course: What It Might Mean? And If It Means Anything, Whether it Actually Took Place,” In R. Macmillan (Ed.), The Structure of the Life Course: Standardized? Individualized? Differentiated? (Vol. 9, pp. 27-54). Amsterdam et al.: JAI Elsevier.

Mayer, K. U. (2004). Whose Lives? How History, Societies and Institutions Define and Shape Life Courses. Research in Human Development 1 (3), 161-187.

Mayer, K. U. (2003). The sociology of the life course and lifespan psychology: Diverging or converging pathways? In U. M. Staudinger & U. Lindenberger (Eds.), Understanding human development: Dialogues with lifespan psychology (pp. 463-481). Boston, MA: Kluwer.

Mayer, K. U. 2001. “The paradox of global social change and national path dependencies: Life course patterns in advanced societies”. In.: A. E. Woodward and M. Kohli (eds.) Inclusions and exclusions in European societies. Routledge, London, pp. 89-110.

Mayer, K. U. (2000). Promises fulfilled? A review of 20 years of life course research. Archives Européennes de Sociologie, 41, 259-282.

References II

Blair-Loy, M. (1999). Career patterns of executive women in finance: An optimal
matching analysis. American Journal of Sociology, 104, 1346-1397.

Bloom, D.E., and J. D. Sachs. (1998)., ”Geography, Demography and Economic Growth in Africa”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1998:2.

Bongaarts, J. (1998) Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post-Transitional Societies, Paper prepared for the Conference on Global Fertility Transition, Bellagio, Italy, May 1998.

Bongaarts, J. and R. A. Bulatao (eds.). 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. 1998. “On the quantum and tempo of fertility,” Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291.

Bumpass, L. L. and E. K. Mburugu. 1977. “Age at marriage and completed family size,”
Social Biology 24(1): 31-37.

Caldwell, John C. 1982. Theory of Fertility Decline. New York: Academic Press.

N. de Coninck-Smith, B. Sandin and E. Schrumpf (eds.), Industrious
Children. Work and Childhood in the Nordic Countries 1850-1990, Odense, 1997.

Council of Economic Advisors (2000). Economic Report of the President, 2000. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

H. Cunningham and P. P. Viazzo (eds.), Child Labour in Historical Perspective 1800-1985: Case Studies From Europe, Japan and Colombia, Unicef, 1996;

Demeny, Paul 1997. “Replacement-level fertility: The implausible endpoint of the demographic transition,” in Gavin W. Jones, Robert M. Douglas, John C. Caldwell, and Rennie M. D’Souza (eds.), The Continuing Demographic Transition. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Demeny, Paul 2003. Population Policy: A Concise Summary in Paul Demeny and Geoffrey
McNicoll, editors International Encyclopedia of Population,

Drago, Robert and Amy Varner (2001). Fertility and Work in the United States: A Policy Perspective, Pennsylvania State University, mimeo

Foster, C. 2000. “The limits to low fertility: A biosocial approach,” Population and Development Review 26(2): 209-234.

Frejka, T. and G. Calot. 2001a. “Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries,” Population and Development Review 27(1): 103-132.

Garey, A.I. (1999). Weaving work and motherhood. Philadelphia, PA: Temple
University Press.

Gruber, Jonathan and David A. Wise, eds. 1999. Social Security and Retirement Around the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Higgins, M. and J. G. Williamson, (1999) Explaining Inequality the World Round: Cohort Size, Kuznets Curves, and Openness, Federal Reserve Bank of New
York, Staff Reports, June 1999, no. 79.

Kohler, H.-P., F. C. Billari, and J. A. Ortega. 2002. “The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s”. Population and Development Review 28 (4): 641-680.

Kohler, H.-P. and J. A. Ortega. 2002a. “Tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures, fertility postponement and completed cohort fertility,” Demographic Research [online available at] 6(6): 91-144.

Kohler, H.-P., A. Skytthe, and K. Christensen. 2001. “The age at first birth and completed fertility reconsidered: Findings from a sample of identical twins,” Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Working Paper #2001-006 (available at

Kuznets, S. (1969) Modern Economic Growth. Rate, Structure and Spread, New Haven and London.

Lesthaeghe, R. 2001. “Postponement and recuperation: Recent fertility trends and
forecasts in six Western European Countries,” paper presented at the IUSSP Seminar
on International Perspectives on Low Fertility: Trends, Theories and Policies,
Tokyo, Japan, March 21-23 (also available as IPD Working paper 2001-01 at http://

Lesthaeghe, R. and P. Willems. 1999. “Is low fertility a temporary phenomenon in the
European Union,” Population and Development Review 25(2): 211-228.


Lutz, W. and S. Scherbov. 2003. “Can immigration compensate for Europe’s low fertility?” European Demographic Research Papers 2003, No. 1, Vienna Institute of Demography.

Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk. 2004. “How would “tempo policies” work?” Paper presented at the 2004 PAA Annual meeting, Boston, 1-3 April 2004.

Lutz, W., B. C. O’Neill, and S. Scherbov. 2003. “Europe’s population at a turning point”. Science 299: 1991

Lutz, W., W. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov. 2001. “The end of world population growth,”
Nature 412: 543-545.

Malmberg, Bo & Lena Sommestad. (2000). Four Phases in the Demographic Transition, Implications for Economic and Social Development in Sweden, 1820-2000. Arbetsrapport/Institutet för Framtidsstudier;Working Paper 2000:6

Marini, M. M. and P. J. Hodsdon. 1981. “Effects of the timing of marriage and first birth on the spacing of subsequent births.,” Demography 18(4): 529-548.

Morgan, P. S. and R. B. King. 2001. “Why have children in the 21st century? Biological predispositions, social coercion, rational choice,” European Journal of Population 17(1): 3-20.

Morgan, P. S. and R. R. Rindfuss. 1999. “Reexamining the link of early childbearing to marriage and to subsequent fertility,” Demography 36(1): 59-75.

Rostow, W.W. (1990) The stages of economic growth : a non-communist manifesto, 3. ed., Cambridge.

United Nations Population Division. 2002. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. New York: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Wilson, C. 2001. “On the scale of global demographic convergence 1950-2000,” Population and Development Review 27(1): 155-172.

Sunday, August 07, 2005

About This Weblog

This weblog forms part of a personal project of mine. It should serve to bring together (online, in real time) back-up references and links to material which will accompany the chapter extracts which are to be found on my other blog which is associated with the issues of global-imbalances, demography, fertility and economic growth. Eventually (I hope) all these posts will form one continuous block which can be read sequentially. In the meantime everything here is a 'work in progress' with bits of me serving as 'gum and chickenwire' to hold together extracts from and links to the pertinent papers.

I hope the outcome will be readable and useful to someone, as well as serving as a data store for me.